Betsson Sweden has released its odds for the 2024 Nobel Prize in Literature, with Australian author Gerald Murnane and Chinese author Can Xue emerging as favourites. Murnane leads with odds of 4.50, closely followed by Can Xue at 5.00. Salman Rushdie ranks third at 6.00.
Betsson’s predictions have aligned with past winners, but surprises remain possible, as seen with Abdulrazak Gurnah in 2021. The betting list includes 26 authors, featuring figures like Jamaica Kincaid and Ko Un.
The Nobel Prize in Literature often sparks significant speculation. This year, Betsson’s top three contenders, Murnane, Xue, and Rushdie, bring varied literary styles to the forefront. Murnane, known for his unique prose, has long been considered a hidden gem in literary circles, while Can Xue’s experimental narratives have earned critical acclaim in China and abroad. Rushdie, a celebrated British-Indian writer, has been a prominent figure in global literature for decades.
Over the years, Betsson’s odds have sometimes aligned with the Academy’s final choices. In 2022, Norwegian author Jon Fosse was second on the list before his win. Similarly, French writer Annie Ernaux, last year’s laureate, was also a top contender. However, surprises are frequent. In 2021, Abdulrazak Gurnah claimed the award despite not being on Betsson’s list at all. And in 2016, musician Bob Dylan stunned the world by winning.
Other notable contenders this year include American writer Jamaica Kincaid, long-time favourite Anne Carson, and South Korean poet Ko Un. Kincaid’s deeply personal narratives, which explore themes of family and identity, have garnered a loyal readership, while Carson’s poetic work has consistently attracted attention from the literary world. At 91 years old, Ko Un remains one of South Korea’s most revered poets.
Robin Olenius, Betsson’s Head of PR, remarked, “In recent years, we’ve seen a strong correlation between our odds and the winners, but the Nobel Prize is always unpredictable.”
Also on Betsson’s list are some notable long shots, including musician Paul Simon and horror novelist Stephen King, both of whom have odds of 50.00. Despite their global fame, neither is expected to claim the prestigious literary award. Simon, a Polar Music Prize winner, and King, a master of the thriller genre, bring different creative realms into the mix, but are still seen as outsiders in this competition.
Historically, France has produced the most Nobel laureates in literature, with 16 winners, followed by the United States and the United Kingdom, each with 13. The average age of Nobel laureates is 65, with the oldest winner being Doris Lessing, who received the prize at 88. Since the award’s inception in 1901, only 17 women have won, and just one laureate, Jean-Paul Sartre, declined the honour in 1964.
As Thursday’s announcement nears, the literary world waits in anticipation. Will Murnane or Can Xue follow in the footsteps of recent winners, or will the Academy surprise everyone once again? Read more on www.betssongroup.com and www.betssonab.com
